Tropical Storm Jerry prompts watches in the Caribbean

Here’s what you need to know.

• Tropical storm watches were in place on Wednesday for Anguilla, Antigua, Barbuda, Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands, Montserrat, Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Kitts, St. Martin, Sint Maarten, Saba and St. Eustatius. A watch means that hazardous conditions, including heavy rain and flash flooding, are possible within the next several days. It is often followed by a warning as the forecast becomes clearer.

• Forecasting models suggest the storm is likely to turn to the north by the weekend. The storm’s core is forecast to pass near the islands of the Caribbean late Thursday and Friday, bringing two to four inches of rain, with local totals up to six inches through Saturday. The rainfall is bringing the potential for flash flooding, especially in higher terrain.

• This time of year is peak hurricane season in the Atlantic. In recent weeks, Gabrielle, Humberto and Imelda have all reached hurricane strength — though none made landfall in the United States. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to project an above-average season this year, with up to 18 named storms before it ends in November. A typical season has 14.

• National Weather Service updates like hurricane forecasts continue as usual during a U.S. government shutdown, because they are considered essential for public safety. But the Weather Service is already operating at reduced staffing after the Trump administration slashed the number of employees at many of the agencies traditionally responsible for planning for and responding to natural disasters.

On Wednesday, the National Hurricane Center said that Tropical Storm Jerry has strengthened slightly as it continues its northward track, and is expected to pass near the northern Caribbeans islands on Thursday. Weather models now indicate that Jerry will likely remain a moderate tropical storm for the next few days. The Hurricane Center said this was because strong upper level winds were making it difficult for the storm to gain strength. Even so, Jerry is expected to become a hurricane by the weekend.

With Jerry gaining steam over the Atlantic Ocean, tropical storm watches are in effect for some islands in the northeast Caribbean including Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy, St. Martin and Sint Maarten. Up to 4 inches of rain is expected on the islands on Thursday, and forecasters warned of flash flooding. Dangerous surf and rip currents are also likely at beaches. Meteorologists are closely watching the forecast in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands to determine whether to issue watches.