Guyana could experience above normal rainfall from December to February – Hydromet Office

Guyana could experience above-normal rainfall between December 2025 and February 2026, with more frequent wet days and intense downpours over much of the country, the Hydrometeorological Office has cautioned.

The outlook was presented on Monday during the 19th annual National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOP), hosted by the Ministry of Agriculture’s Hydrometeorological Service, where officials urged stakeholders to use the forecast to guide planning, preparedness and risk reduction over the coming months.

Delivering welcoming remarks, Deputy Chief Hydrometeorological Officer Haymattie Danny reminded participants that climate services touch “nearly every aspect of our lives”, and stressed that Guyana remains highly vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather linked to climate change.

She noted that since NCOP was introduced locally in 2016, it has evolved into a biannual platform that brings together public and private sector stakeholders to examine seasonal forecasts and their likely impacts.

“Stakeholder engagement from both the public and private sector is critical… It is prudent that stakeholders understand and become climate literate,” Danny said, adding that the forum helps bridge the gap between climate science and real-world application so that sectors can make better-informed decisions.

Presenting the seasonal outlook, climatologist Komal Chandila explained that model guidance from global and regional centres is pointing to near-to above-normal rainfall across most regions for the December–February period, with a higher chance of wetter-than-usual conditions along the coast and near-inland areas.

He said the forecast is influenced by sea-surface temperature patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic, the behaviour of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and other large-scale climate drivers. While there is no strong El Niño or La Niña signal at present, ocean conditions and atmospheric patterns are supportive of enhanced rainfall for Guyana’s secondary rainy season.

The outlook suggests more wet days than usual in several regions and an increased chance of heavy rainfall events, especially days with more than 25 millimetres of rain.

It also makes mention of rising levels in conservancies and reservoirs across much of the country; and continued below-normal rainfall and drier-than-usual conditions in the far south of Region Six and parts of Region Nine, where a drought watch remains in effect.

Chandila cautioned that, although the overall season is likely to be wetter than normal for many areas, there will still be periods of little or no rain because of drivers that suppress rainfall, such as Saharan dust outbreaks.