Dear Editor,
Election is not due until November 2025. But if an election is called soon, incumbent president Irfaan Ali will defeat opposition leader Aubrey Norton. But the government faces challenges not the least being rising cost of living, crime, allegations of corruption, unpopular ministers and other officials, among other issues. Ali and Bharrat Jagdeo are addressing these issues.
The public is fixated on high cost of living and crime with ‘politics’ (voting) far removed from their thought. People are more concerned about rising food prices and putting food on the table than on voting. Nevertheless, the ruling PPP leads the opposition in popular support. The leader of the opposition who is also leader of the People’s National Congress (PNC), Mr. Aubrey Norton, is very unpopular among the party’s traditional base and nationally unlike Mr. Irfaan Ali who still has strong support within the PPP’s base and enjoys national appeal. Supporters of the PNC have been gravitating towards the AFC led by Mr. Nigel Hughes who has also been attracting cross-over appeal; some PNC supporters have also crossed over to the PPP. These were some other trends obtained from engagements of voters in late July and August by this writer.
On polarisation, it is found that some Africans, who traditionally vote PNC, have crossed over to the PPP because of Irfaan Ali’s likability and efforts to woo them. But it is too early to tell whether they will vote for the PPP cup. Hardly any Indians have expressed a preference for the PNC (APNU).
Some Africans and Mixed who are disenchanted with PNC leadership are crossing over to PPP. Voters nationally are not pleased with Aubrey Norton’s leadership. Africans in particular are not satisfied with his leadership of the PNC party and the APNU alliance. He is facing a similar predicament that befell Robert Corbin almost two decades ago when traditional supporters rejected his leadership and went over to the AFC. If an election is called soon, the PNC will find itself repeating the result of the 2006 election when many of the party’s supporters walked away, rejecting then party leader Robert Corbin as Presidential candidate. The PNC lost several seats putting in its worst performance in its history. In 2011, the base returned when the party made David Granger leader and Presidential candidate. Granger went on to win the 2015 elections.
The current trends show that incumbent Irfaan Ali will easily win re-election as President with the PPP picking up seats providing the PNC (APNU) goes into the election separated from AFC and with Aubrey Norton as the opposition presidential candidate. Norton trails Ali and Hughes in favourability rating. Ali has a high positive favourability rating compared with Norton’s negative net ratings. If the opposition is united and if there is another likable Presidential candidate for the combined opposition, the contest will be very competitive. Ali is a populist traveling around the country effectively using massive state resources to share around and build goodwill among the population. He is retaining the bulk of the party’s 2020 support base and gaining new supporters among Africans and Amerindians with the election still more than a year away.
Yours truly,
Vishnu Bisram
