Guyana is expected to see an average level of rainfall during the May-June rainy season but below normal rainfall in July that may likely result in a drought from thereon.
This is according to Climatologist Komal Dhiram from the Hydromet Office on Tuesday during the 14th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF).
“The forecast suggests neutral conditions with a transition to El Niño by July 2023,” Dhiram said. “Wet as usual conditions can be expected in May to June while below normal rainfall in July.”
El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide, with El Niño being characterised by warmer temperatures and less rainfall and La Niña denoted by cooler temperatures and heavier rainfall.
Dhiram explained that the country is now in a neutral phase, having just come out of the La Niña phase that 2022 was largely in.
This was reflected by the flooding last year caused by heavy and consistent rainfall within Regions Two (Pomeroon-Supenaam), Four (Demerara-Mahaica), Five (Mahaica-Berbice), Seven (Cuyuni-Mazaruni), Eight (Potaro-Siparuni) and Nine (Upper Takatu-Upper Essequibo).
Though normal rainfall levels can now be expected during May and June, he added that Guyanese may still need to follow precautions and be wary of certain challenges that may come with the rain.
These include potential flash floods in May and June, disruptions to transportation, possible landslides in hinterland areas and water accumulation that may lead to water-borne diseases.
Meanwhile, in July when the country is expected to enter the El Niño phase, a drought will likely begin.
“Drought is actually a deficit of rainfall, not necessarily the total absence,” Dhiram said, adding that July will see a small deficit of rainfall that will likely increase throughout the rest of the year.
“The implication of that, as we get into that dry period [includes] significant reduction in rainfall, prolonged surface dryness, water levels in conservancies will decrease rapidly, drying up of wells, disruption to transportation in riverine villages [and] contamination of surface water as a result of livestock and wildlife searching for water,” Dhiram said.
He added that individuals may also experience potential economic stress and increased health issues related to the heat.
Dhiram encouraged participants of the forum to use this information to best prepare themselves for the upcoming weather patterns the country is expected to experience.
Addressing occasional disparities in hydromet’s predictions versus actuality, Dhiram explained that the department conducts weather forecasts for the entire country and not for individual cities.
Results, therefore, indicate that Guyana has lots of microclimates with different areas of the country experiencing different levels of rainfall throughout the year.
