The Nixon administration, on the recommendation of Kissinger, decided to lift the worldwide US military alert late in the night of October 24-October 25 to DefCon III, its highest worldwide level since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis.
The declassified President’s Daily Briefs provide startling new evidence on what exactly US intelligence had discovered about Soviet activities and why the Nixon administration had reason to be concerned. In the second volume of his memoirs, Kissinger hinted that he made his alert recommendation because of “ominous reports in especially sensitive areas” but didn’t reveal more.
It turns out Kissinger and Nixon worried that the crisis might go nuclear. American intelligence had detected a Soviet ship headed for Egypt that it believed was carrying nuclear weapons. In addition, the United States detected two Soviet amphibious ships nearing Egypt. Ultimately, Soviet troops never landed in Egypt, and the Soviet flotilla 100 miles off the coast of Egypt dispersed within hours of the US alert. The full story of the ship thought to have nuclear weapons remains to be told. It arrived in Egypt on October 24. Its fate and that of its cargo may be in the still classified sections of what was released Wednesday.
The picture drawn by the CIA in Nixon’s briefings was not always accurate. The agency failed to predict the Egyptian and Syrian attack on Israel. On October 5, 1973, the day before attack, the White House was told, “Military exercises now going on in Egypt are larger and more realistic than previous ones, but the Israelis are not nervous.”
In Southeast Asia, the agency predicted that local communists, Khmer or Lao, would never be able to defeat America’s allies without the support of the North Vietnamese, who were an effective fighting force. This would prove to be a mistaken assumption once the United States withdrew militarily from the region.
And some potentially key gaps for us remain in the intelligence picture given to Nixon. There are many sections on the Middle East and some tantalizing items about Palestinian terrorism and presumably the Black September Organization — one called “Fedayeen-US” from just after the Munich massacre and another involving a foiled bomb plot in New York in March 1973 — that are still largely classified.
There are also sections on North Vietnam and quite a few on South Vietnam that remain closed, especially from the tragic period in the fall of 1972 when Saigon intervened politically to prevent Washington and Hanoi from ending the war. There are also some sections where even the name of the country involved is still not declassified.
Ford’s different approach to CIA
When Ford became President in August 1974, the White House’s relationship with CIA improved dramatically. He choose to have these briefings in person, and their tone reflects the fact that US intelligence believed the President was listening. When Ford headed to Indonesia in December 1975, the CIA warned him that Indonesian President Suharto would ask him about the US position on Indonesia’s plans to invade the former Portuguese colony of East Timor: “Suharto will undoubtedly raise the question of Timor during talks with you in an effort to determine US reaction to overt intervention.” The agency made clear that though determined to use military force to incorporate the colony into Indonesia, Suharto was sensitive to US criticism and was even preparing to act without using US-supplied weapons to avoid later trouble with the US Congress. Jakarta needed continued American military assistance. The agency never felt close enough to Nixon, and was so often kept in the dark about his foreign policy initiatives, that it had rarely provided similar guidance in a President’s Daily Brief before his trips abroad.
In this case, Ford made up his mind not to stand in the way of Indonesia’s invasion — an event that would lead to a brutal 25-year occupation causing an estimated 200,000 deaths — a decision he would later tell historian Douglas Brinkley he understandably regretted.
“I mean I truly,” Brinkley quotes him as saying in his fine biography of Ford, “honestly feel for those families which suffered losses. I’m sorry for them. The whole thing was tragic but I only learned the extent to what happened there after I left Washington. Then it was too late.” Not only did Ford read his briefings, he also could admit his big mistakes.
The world of the President’s Daily Brief only got more complicated for a president after 9/11. Not only must you read about what adversarial countries with armies are planning and doing, you have to keep track of dozens of byzantine plots involving shadowy figures with often similar names. And you have to do that six days a week, for four or, if you are lucky, eight years. No wonder presidents seem to age fast.